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What you just posted is misleading. Silver's model gave the GOP a 2 in 3 chance of winning the House in 2010, predicting a net gain of 45-50 House seats, and the majority - http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/g-o-p-ha...


Also, his modeling is MUCH more accurate for presidential races, where there is more polling data, and thus a lower sampling error.




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