The issue for the next 20-50 years isn't that everyone needs to become a programmer, its that currently no one is becoming a programmer. Until we start to graduate people from high school with some ability and interest in programming, we're in tough shape. At the present time, its near impossible to find a school system anywhere with a good programming/CS program.
And the changes will take a long time to implement: government will need to invest heavily in teaching teachers to program (and teach programming), and invest in ever-changing computer lab infrastructure.
The future looks as ripe for companies like CodeAcademy as it is bleak for government-run education systems.
There is nobody becoming programmers because it is a poor profession to get into.
Locally (outside the US), I see job postings that require "programming gods" for the job, that top the pay scale out at $70K. The US is reported to fair better, where programming deities can earn over $100K, but mediocre programmers still do not earn that much from what I gather.
It takes a lot of work to become even a mediocre programmer, and when you get there, there is no room for advancement. The programmers job is to automate itself away, yet, unlike the commissioner, the average will never see residuals on the gains from that automation. They say most programmers leave programming by the age of 35 because it is a dead end.
Don't get me wrong, I love the field and have no regrets about entering it. I started programming in high school because I was fascinated by it, and the fact I can make a decent living doing what I love is amazing. I do, however, recognize that I could be much further along professionally if I would have poured all those hours into other pursuits.
And that's the kicker. Most people are not going to naturally love programming like me and, I'm going to assume, you. Why would they want to spend their formative years on interests they do not particularly love, to find themselves in a job that pays decently, but has no real room for advancement beyond leaving the act of programming entirely?
I'd agree that programming in isolation is not a tremendously well-remunerated skill. However, it does act as a force multiplier for your other abilities.
A non-technical parallel is public speaking. With extraordinary skill (in isolation), you could end up as a PR flack making 100K or so. If you combine great speaking ability with strong organizational and interpersonal skills, you could end up making orders of magnitude more as a CEO or politician.
Programming, like public speaking, can be thought of as a delivery mechanism. As more of our world becomes "programmable", the increased reach and leverage of coding ability will make it far more valuable.
I think that is a fair observation, but if people don't already have a keen interest for programming, why wouldn't they just pursue the non-programming multiplier that best fits their personality?
It's not the people who already enamoured by programming, it's the people who dislike or even hate it (i.e. most people). What about programming makes it worth their time to do, when they do not naturally love it?
The issue for the next 20-50 years isn't that everyone needs to become a programmer, its that currently no one is becoming a programmer. Until we start to graduate people from high school with some ability and interest in programming, we're in tough shape. At the present time, its near impossible to find a school system anywhere with a good programming/CS program.
And the changes will take a long time to implement: government will need to invest heavily in teaching teachers to program (and teach programming), and invest in ever-changing computer lab infrastructure.
The future looks as ripe for companies like CodeAcademy as it is bleak for government-run education systems.