I hear what you are saying - I'm just thinking luck is the multiplier - ebay, google, etc - how many other search engines aren't as successful? how many ebays does no one know about? I guess luck is timing to some degree - but its also plain luck. All of the monday morning quarterbacking that goes on seems obvious in retrospect, but the future is still completely uncertain. VC's expect 1 in 10 to fail b/c thats just historically what has happened. If they knew what made the 1 hit they wouldn't fund the 9 losers. I'm just saying, really nothing new I guess, that the business of predicting the future by looking at the past is colored by confirmation bias. What characteristic do all self made men have in common? They took alot of risk. However, thats also the same trait incarcerated bank-robbers have in common. I'm just saying prediction is impossible.

By all means do what you love b/c if it crashes and burns at least you won't have hated the last 2 years of your life.