Yea, at least in tech, the whole "get a 10% raise by switching jobs" thing works great early on, but pretty much ends once you're 10-20 years into your career. There's a ceiling that you asymptotically approach. Here's an example, adjusted for cost of living but not inflation (sample size = 1). This spans about 20 years, switching roughly every 3-4 years:
Job 2: 33% raise over Job 1
Job 3: 15% raise over Job 2
Job 4: 10% raise over Job 3
Job 5: 0% raise over Job 4
Job 6: 2% raise over Job 5
Job 7: ??? we'll see!
Unless my experience is unlike most, I'd say the job hopping strategy is best when you're more junior.
Base + signing pay for me over the past ten years:
Job 2: +14.29%
Job 3: -18.75% / 23.08% / 25.00% (Motionloft... let's just say Mills and Garrison were full of shit and it took a while for me to get what had been promised initially)
Job 4: 25.00%
Job 5: 8.00%
Job 6: 31.11%
Job 7: 2.64% (back to employer #5, so about 35% over that)
I know everyone likes to look at total comp, but especially if you're looking at smaller companies the non-cash stuff is often worthless. Even when the non-cash stuff is valuable, the extra base pay helps. For example: ESPP purchases by law can be at most 15% of your pay, 401k matching and profit sharing may be a percentage of your base pay, and so-on. Technically total 401k contributions may be limited by your salary, but this only comes into play if you're making around $50,000 annually in a job where your employer is willing to make very generous contributions.
This last time around though I traded some cash (base and signing) for RSUs because the company is large and publicly traded. Total comp while the RSUs vest is a bit north of $200k, but once the RSUs vest my take home will definitely take a hit. The sad part is that this company was willing to authorize a heft hike in base pay over my previous gig... but for the fact that I was a rehire. The didn't give a crap how much I was making at the previous gig, they cared how much they were paying me previously. Lesson learned: always go for the cash. Always.
Are you in Bay Area/Seattle/NY? 200k total is not much for somebody with 10 years experience. Picking right employer and sticking with it could have netted you better pay.
Yeah, sticking with an employer could've been beneficial, and by leaving when I did cost me the opportunity for about $90k income from stock. Not returning could've also been beneficial. Being a rehire lowered their offer by 20-30k base. However, while I'm sure there are some places that do pay more, without jumping to an architect role $200k total comp looked to be pretty typical for a senior ops/SRE gig to me.
There were a number of reasons I chose to return, but among the top were the commute and culture. Which is to say no, I'm not at Google or Facebook and that was a very deliberate choice. Likewise I'm not stuck driving to the middle of San Mateo (or worse) on a daily basis either.
The issue is that "the right employer" where what you describe is possible is also almost certainly highly competitive for junior roles and gets worse the higher up the tech ladder one climbs.
The actual data indicate that for the vast majority of developers "sticking with it" puts them behind the salary curve. In this industry especially that's bad because of the effects of ageism.
What you describe is possible, but represents a minority of career tracks, especially in this industry.
You have to wonder, if most people who say things like "You only make 200k, you should try $x" are such great developers that they don't realize they are unique, or if they are full of it.
Job 2: 33% raise over Job 1
Job 3: 15% raise over Job 2
Job 4: 10% raise over Job 3
Job 5: 0% raise over Job 4
Job 6: 2% raise over Job 5
Job 7: ??? we'll see!
Unless my experience is unlike most, I'd say the job hopping strategy is best when you're more junior.