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If you understand why previous bouts of automation didn't harm workers, you'll understand why the pace and magnitude of automation doesn't make a difference in whether automation is harmful or beneficial to workers.


We can look at some historical and current analogies. A good current analogy is the transition from coal to natural gas. This transition has been very disruptive. The one direct consequence of that disruptions is having Trump in the oval office.

Historically, when things changed people moved. They had no choice - there was no government welfare system in place. Displaced coal miners can choose to remain in Appalachia where there are no jobs - they know the government won't let them starve.

Trump's saying "coal is back, coal is good" before the election certainly made sense. It was a key factor in him getting elected. But the actions he's taking now to confront this disruption will be what? He's not going to convince congress to give these harmed workers more benefits.

The next wave of disruption will be replacing truck drivers with robots. How things pan out with the coal miners and the government's reaction will be of great interest to the truck drivers (the number one occupation in ~30 states [1]. Interesting thing in that map is that the second most common occupation is "software engineer").

You could say that truck driving is the last bastion of "blue-collar" middle-class occupation is the US. Are these folk going to go quietly? No chance. And like I said, they'll be paying close attention to how the government treats the coal miners. I could see a populist politician promote legislation saying that only people can own truck-driving robots, and that a single person can only own one such robot.

[1] http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-t...


Previous bouts of automation most certainly did harm many workers. That other workers eventually got jobs and a higher standard of living didn't help many of the people who lost positions and status.

When this happens on a small scale, it's often possible to relocate in a big country like the US. When this sort of industrial shift happens simultaneously across the geographic range where migration has low friction, workers whose cognitive ability or general flexibility is inadequate to retraining are well and truly screwed.


Elaborate?


He may mean nothing more than "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proofs"




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