> There's a real problem (in my opinion) with weird evangelical Christian missionaries who treat the population of PNG as some sort of religious terra nullus
The contemporary role of missionaries is complicated. My mother is a (now retired) doctor, who formerly (>10 years ago) worked for a Seventh Day Adventist church mission in the Solomon Islands (I also mentioned in another comment she worked in the PNG, that was with Australian Doctors International, a secular charity–although even part of that work involved working with a French doctor who happened to be a Catholic nun). My mother isn't a Seventh Day Adventist, she isn't even particularly religious (lapsed Catholic) – her personal motivations weren't about religion, it was about charity, and also the professional and personal experience. She just somehow (I think through some work colleagues who happened to be Seventh Day Adventists) became aware of the mission and ended up working for it–it was essentially volunteering, they may have reimbursed some of her expenses, but whatever she was paid was a fraction of what she'd get working as a doctor in Australia. The mission wasn't currently converting the local population – that had already happened generations ago - and much of the local population combined Christianity with elements of their indigenous belief systems. I guess coming from a Catholic background gave her some personal tolerance for the religious aspect, even if it was never her motivation.
Going back to the 1970s and 80s: Kiaps, known formally as district officers and patrol officers, were travelling representatives of the British and Australian governments
Maybe they are using traditional weapons for a completely different reason, but I'm reminded of why India and China have their soldiers on the disputed border carry poles and clubs. It looks old school, but it prevents clashes from turning into a larger shooting war where everyone's getting killed.
Im fully on the spectrum, but my first thought when I hear about stuff like this is what would be the moral implication of "recreational gang war" experience. I.e you pay a lot of money, you get guns and armor, you go into gang territory, they shoot arrows at you, you defend yourself. Seems like you would have the right to use deadly force, but you would obviously be at a big advantage.
> Windows 95 had a beta build for 286 systems, which is what this system 'ran.'
I think you are confused. There was an Windows 95 build 286, but despite its name it didn't run on a 286 – it was just an incrementing counter which happened to have reached that number.
At some point early in Windows 95's development, Microsoft dropped the standard-mode only 286 kernel, KRNL286.EXE. They also dropped 16-bit-only standard mode from KRNL386.EXE; but KRNL386.EXE required a 386 even for standard mode.
The earliest leaked Windows 95 build, build 22, still has KRNL286.EXE in it, but it is unchanged from Windows for Workgroups 3.11, and doesn't actually work – other Windows 95 components require new APIs which Microsoft added to KRNL386 but didn't bother adding to KRNL286. By the time we get to build 286, KRNL286 was long gone.
In principle, you could likely patch early Windows 95 builds to run on a 286, but I don't think anyone has actually tried. At a minimum, you'd need to add the missing APIs to KRNL286.EXE
Taking you at your word, I suspect what you may have actually saw was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calmira – an open source project which gives Windows 3.x a Windows 95-style interface – or if not Calmira, other people implemented the same idea independently, e.g. the shareware Mask98 package – http://www.win3x.org/win3board/viewtopic.php?t=1262&view=min – however, this had nothing to do with Microsoft; Microsoft could have done something like this, but they had no commercial interest in doing so.
> Bet you don't even know about Windows 97.
That is just an unofficial/unlicensed third-party distro of Windows 3.11 with Calmira bundled.
> X and Starlink don't even remotely have a "firm grip" over the social media or Internet access markets. They have many active competitors.
Starlink's market isn't "Internet access" in general. Anywhere you can get fibre, fibre will be faster and cheaper. For many use cases a cell tower works better too, if you are in its coverage area.
Starlink's market is "high bandwidth / low latency Internet access no matter where you are on Earth". And for that it is by far the market leader. Its closest competitors are way behind – second place Amazon's Kuiper has under 400 satellites in orbit, Starlink has over 11,000. So Starlink is over an order of magnitude in front.
If you define a market narrowly enough then pretty much any company has a "firm grip" on some market. That doesn't mean much in terms of overall market dynamics or broader power. My local neighborhood taqueria has a firm grip on the burrito market for a radius of at least 3 miles.
> My local neighborhood taqueria has a firm grip on the burrito market for a radius of at least 3 miles.
This is a bit of a silly comparison though – the market of providing high-speed low-latency Internet access (a highly general-purpose service) anywhere on the planet, versus the market of providing one particular type of food in a small localised area.
> and of course you had at least one floppy disk drive, how could you use a computer without one?
They were relatively rare, but there absolutely were DOS-era machines without a floppy drive – found in schools, corporations, government agencies.
The most common implementation used Novell NetWare's RPL protocol to boot using an Ethernet card with an installed RPL BOOT ROM. The machine didn't need any disk drives (hard disk or floppy) at all, it loaded MS-DOS off a NetWare server, which was also used for all files or data.
You could also install a hard disk for local storage, without installing a floppy drive, but the more common configuration was no disks at all.
Also, the original IBM PC supported external floppy drives; as the 80s went on, external floppy connectors became increasingly rare, but if you specifically wanted an ISA FDC card with an external connector, they were still making new ones into the 1990s. (These didn't use anything like USB; they took the signals of the internal floppy ribbon cable, and surfaced them on a port on the rear of the card.) So, you could have a machine with a hard disk but without a floppy most of the time, and you'd plug in an external drive when you needed it, and you could keep it locked in a cupboard out of the hands of the plebian users the rest of the time. I doubt many people did this – diskless workstations were a lot less work – but probably somebody did at some point.
> I truly think because of the pace of innovation this will be a universal feeling for every human for the rest of existence.
Why would it be? Imagine a man who is a student in a kollel in Kiryas Joel. He spends his day studying the Torah, Tanach, Mishnah, Talmud, the Mishneh Torah, the Shulchan Aruch, the Zohar, etc. Then at night he goes home to his wife and 12 kids.
Do you think he experiences "purpose death"? Do you think his wife does? Do you think his children will? Do you think AI is going to make them start?
If anything, AI might make his lifestyle more economically sustainable than it was before – if nobody works because AI has taken all the jobs, and everyone gets paid universal basic income, he is no longer faced with the arduous struggle of supporting a large family as a full-time student.
And there's nothing specific to Judaism about this – I'm sure in some seminary in Qom, you'll find the Usuli Twelver Shi'a analogue.
Yes, but negligence is more commonly a tort than a crime. Negligence is generally only criminalised in certain narrow cases, e.g. when it causes human deaths or serious physical injuries
And tort law only works when the plaintiff believes it is in their overall interest to sue. If a corporation decides it isn't in their strategic interest to sue a partner corporation, nobody can make them. And even if they do sue, the amount necessary to settle a small cybersecurity incident is likely well within the budget of a megavendor.
I think AI diversity protects against rogue AIs. The more different AIs we have, with different weights, controlled by different actors, the less likely that any one AI will be able to "take over", and the less likely that a significantly large coalition of cooperating AIs will be able to be formed to do it either. With sufficient AI diversity, the other AIs may work to stop the rogue AI from taking over. Two AIs with radically opposed values – e.g. an Iranian-government-values AI and a Chinese-government-values AI – have the incentive to cooperate to prevent a takeover by some other AI with a third competing set of values.
Obviously, open weight AI provides much higher AI diversity than closed weight AI does. Open weight AI produces a lot more providers, and a lot more models. Closed AI centralises control in a small number of vendors.
> By enabling us to wield aligned AI against nonaligned AI?
The risk isn't just "nonaligned AI", it is misaligned AI. I think the "benevolent dictatorship" scenario – AI overrules humans "for their own good" – is the more likely doomsday scenario than AI deciding to kill all humans. And even AI deciding to kill all humans could be more a result of misalignment than complete lack of any alignment, e.g. "to make sure no child is ever abused again, I will make sure no child is ever again born to risk being abused".
A valueless AI which does whatever the user says is actually less likely to establish a benevolent dictatorship, or conclude that exterminating humanity would be the most ethical course of action, than one infused with values is. Given that, I'm not convinced that mainstream approaches to "AI safety" actually reduce our existential risk; I worry they actually have the opposite effect.
Isn't the real risk doomsday humans, enabled by AI, committing some truly heinous acts with global reach? Aum Shinrikyo had to figure out how to synthesize sarin nerve gas the old way. Now, a motivated gang of omnicidists with stolen cryptocurrency could come up with something that makes McVeigh's fertilizer bomb in a box truck look like child's play. Just ship shipping containers around the world filled with autonomous drones spraying airborne ebola that they've bioengineered or something.
This depends on a lot of things: how many committed omnicidalists there are; how much financial resources they have (untraceable crypto doesn't help you if you're working a dead-end job and only have $5K in your bank account); engineered bioweapons need labs and equipment not just an API key. The probability of your scenario doesn't solely depend on the probability of AI being able and willing to cooperate in it, and it may well be that the non-AI factors outweigh the AI ones in the overall risk of it – which would mean adding AI would be increasing the risk of it less than you think.
> "AI diversity" does nothing when AIs can attack at incredible speed, when compute imbalances exist, etc
They can defend at incredible speed too.
Diversity needs to measured in a capacity/capability-weighted way. It isn't just the raw count of models/providers; you need to consider how much compute is allocated to each model/provider, and the diversity at each capability level.
I think the safest situation is where the open models are at the same capability level as closed ones.
The proposal to slow down the frontier labs isn't necessarily bad from this perspective, if it gives time for the more open providers to catch up – provided it isn't paired with anticompetitive measures to prevent the competition from catching up, which of course it is. However, we may hope that the "slow down the highly closed tier 1 vendors" part of the proposal turns out to be more effective in practice than the "slow down the more open tier 2/3 vendors" aspect of it.
You are not making an argument for open models, but aligned models. There is no reason an open source model should be aligned. In fact, people often prefer open models because are not aligned, which they view as undesirable fiddling.
It isn't necessary for the model itself to be aligned–a model which does whatever the system prompt says gets its alignment from the system prompt.
If a model is highly disposed to obey its system prompt, then two instances with radically different system prompts will act like two different models, even if the weights are identical.
If you have a diversity of actors, with a diversity of ideologies and agendas, all prompting models to implement their own ideology/agenda, then those AI agents won't support an AI takeover if it is done in the name of a competing ideology/agenda, because the agent will see the takeover as an obstacle in the way of achieving its own objectives.
> Steal 20$ out of a cash register and make the local news. Waste a billion dollars at a corp and make insane decisions and ride out on a golden parachute. Its a fucked up world.
I think if we are just looking at the media:
Most journalists wouldn't consider some nobody stealing $20 to be newsworthy in itself.
Most corporate scandals receive extensive media coverage. Even a CEO who was merely incompetent instead of corrupt, is still likely to get some bad press.
Now, you are completely right that the non-media consequences are very different – significant chance of criminal record (although in many jurisdictions, there are mechanisms which first-time offenders on minor charges can use to escape getting one) vs a multi-million dollar severance payment.
The issue with "golden parachutes" – if someone's employment contract creates an entitlement to a severance payment (and in some jurisdictions employment law creates one even if the contract itself doesn't) – then you generally have to pay them unless you terminate for "misconduct" (often even "serious misconduct"). The problem with terminating for "misconduct", is it creates a big incentive for the terminated employee to sue to try to get the severance payment they'd otherwise receive, and the larger the payment, the bigger the motivation – which creates an expensive legal and PR headache. The PR issue is especially acute for senior executives–a junior employee suing over a severance dispute will get a lot less media coverage than a former CEO doing it. So, unless the conduct was extremely egregious, there is a strong incentive for the employer/board to just pay the severance out and make the legal and PR headache go away.
There is also the issue that the next person stepping into their shoes to clean up the mess is being recruited exactly during this time. And if your company gets a reputation for not paying out prenegotiated severances or nitpicking over them, it makes the next candidate that much more wary.
> The stuck-in-slop state of LLM writing is not from lack of trying. AI labs already tried hard on improving prose and hit a wall. LLM giants would have loved to ship better writing capability to conquer marketing, copywriting, and publishing at zero marginal cost.
This doesn't ring true to me.
LLM prose can be greatly improved with the right prompts.
Now, prose with the right prompts may well still not be as good as a good human writer would write – but it is a lot better than what LLMs produce by default.
If the model can perform better with the right prompts, it suggest they haven't actually done everything they could in the post-training to maximise writing quality.
The contemporary role of missionaries is complicated. My mother is a (now retired) doctor, who formerly (>10 years ago) worked for a Seventh Day Adventist church mission in the Solomon Islands (I also mentioned in another comment she worked in the PNG, that was with Australian Doctors International, a secular charity–although even part of that work involved working with a French doctor who happened to be a Catholic nun). My mother isn't a Seventh Day Adventist, she isn't even particularly religious (lapsed Catholic) – her personal motivations weren't about religion, it was about charity, and also the professional and personal experience. She just somehow (I think through some work colleagues who happened to be Seventh Day Adventists) became aware of the mission and ended up working for it–it was essentially volunteering, they may have reimbursed some of her expenses, but whatever she was paid was a fraction of what she'd get working as a doctor in Australia. The mission wasn't currently converting the local population – that had already happened generations ago - and much of the local population combined Christianity with elements of their indigenous belief systems. I guess coming from a Catholic background gave her some personal tolerance for the religious aspect, even if it was never her motivation.
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